The February 2025 barometer from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) has shaken up the political landscape in Lleida with a clear-cut finding: Aliança Catalana, the party led by Sílvia Orriols, would become the leading political force in the province of Lleida with 17.9% of the voting intention, overtaking ERC (17%) and the PSC (12.5%). But what turns this figure into a political earthquake is not just the rise of a radical independence party, but the context surrounding it: confidence in the Catalan government plunges to 2.2 out of 10, the Catalan Parliament scores 2.5, and 69% of Catalans say they are not very or not at all satisfied with how democracy works. In Lleida, the capital of inland Catalonia, citizen discontent has found a megaphone.
Lleida’s electoral map: a historic shift
The CEO data, reported by the newspaper Segre, paints a picture of a province where traditional independence movements are losing steam while the more radical option gains ground. Aliança Catalana gets 17.9% of direct voting intention, followed by ERC with 17%, the PSC with 12.5%, and Junts with 8.9%. Across Catalonia, the seat projection places the PSC as the leading force (36-38 seats), but the big surprise is Aliança Catalana, which breaks in with 23-25 seats, surpassing Junts (16-18) and coming very close to ERC (24-26).
This rise is no accident. In Lleida, where irregular immigration and citizen security are growing concerns, Orriols’ message, combining radical independence with a tough stance on illegal immigration, resonates with an electorate that feels abandoned by institutions. The barometer reveals that 62% of Vox voters and 53% of Aliança Catalana voters cite insecurity as their main problem, well above the general average. In a province where the PP and Vox join forces at the municipal level, this data explains why the far-right independence movement is eating into the constitutionalist right’s ground.
The crisis of confidence: institutions flunking
The CEO barometer not only measures voting intention; it also provides a snapshot of Catalonia’s democratic health. And the diagnosis is alarming. On a scale of 0 to 10, confidence in the Catalan government gets a 2.2; the Catalan Parliament, a 2.5; the Spanish monarchy, a 3.4; local councils, a 3.8; the courts of justice, a 4.1; the European Union, a 4.6; and the Catholic Church, a 4.7. Only 25% of Catalans say they trust the government of Salvador Illa, and barely 28% trust the Parliament.
These numbers reflect an institutional disaffection that goes beyond the independence debate. 69% of the population say they are not very or not at all satisfied with how democracy currently works, and a worrying 56% believe the government hides information from them. In Lleida, where the management of immigration and security are recurring topics in everyday conversations, this distrust translates into a protest vote against traditional parties. Aliança Catalana capitalizes on that discontent by positioning itself as the only force that says what others keep quiet about.
Insecurity and housing: the two faces of social fracture
The barometer reveals a generational and thematic divide that explains Aliança Catalana’s rise. While insecurity is the main problem for 62% of Vox voters and 53% of Aliança voters, housing worries 35% of young people aged 18-24, 31% of Comuns voters, and 20% of CUP voters. In Lleida, where rental prices have risen 40% in the last five years and thefts in the historic center are commonplace, both concerns coexist.
But the data that should make constitutionalist parties reflect is that insecurity is not an issue exclusive to the right. 25% of people over 64 also cite it as a priority, and this group is traditionally more inclined toward the PSC or the PP. Yet, in Lleida, the votes of these older individuals are moving to Aliança Catalana, where Orriols’ party has managed to tap into the fear of repeat offenders and the feeling of judicial impunity. While Illa’s government gets tangled in identity debates, ordinary citizens see their quality of life deteriorating.
Radical independence as a symptom, not a cause
Let’s not oversimplify: Aliança Catalana is not just an independence party; it is a movement that channels frustration toward the system. 56% of Catalans believe the government hides information from them, and 69% are dissatisfied with democracy. In this breeding ground, Orriols’ message, mixing sovereigntism with an anti-establishment tone and blunt language against irregular immigration, finds an echo that traditional parties struggle to counter.
In Lleida, where the presence of irregular immigrants is visible in neighborhoods like Cappont or Mariola, the security message becomes a lethal electoral weapon. The PSC, which runs the city council with socialist mayor Fèlix Larrosa, has tried a moderate approach, but the CEO data shows it is not enough. ERC and Junts, meanwhile, are trapped in their own internal crises and offer no credible alternative. And the PP, with a 12-13% seat projection across Catalonia, remains stagnant in Lleida, where its constitutionalist message clashes with the province’s majority independence sentiment.
Looking ahead: a warning for constitutionalist parties
The CEO barometer is a wake-up call. If constitutionalist parties, the PSC, PP, and Vox, fail to craft a message addressing insecurity and institutional disaffection with concrete measures, Aliança Catalana will continue to grow. In Lleida, where 17.9% of the voting intention already places it as the top force, the Orriols phenomenon is no fluke; it is a trend.
The final reflection is uncomfortable but necessary: Catalan democracy is ailing. When only 25% of citizens trust their government and 69% are dissatisfied with the system, the ground for extremism is fertile. In Lleida, the capital of rural and conservative Catalonia, Aliança Catalana has understood that the best way to grow is to exploit discontent. Constitutionalist parties have little time left to prove they can offer more than gestures and good intentions. If they don’t, the next barometer could be even more unsettling.